In Africa

From 10 July until 20 August 2009 I have been travelling in Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda to explore the future of technology in Africa on location. Most of the work was done in the form of interviews with technology pioneers, business people, government representatives, scientists, artists, and bright minds of any kind. Some of their stories are summarized below. 
 

In Kenya

Soon after my arrival, I meet with journalist and entrepreneur Salim Amin, son of the late legendary media baron Mo Amin, and CEO of the family company, Camerapix. When I explain to him my aim to discover the future of Africa through the lens of technology, he immediately catches on. During the next 60 minutes I rarely interrupt him with short questions. Amin is absolutely convinced that technology will change Africa fundamentally. In his words, “the mobile phone has more impact on Africa than colonisation”. His own ambition, a pan-African 24 hour news channel like Al Jazeera in the Middle East relies on the assumption that a large portion of Africa’s population will be online within 2-3 years. “We can’t wait 10-15 years. We’d be bankrupt.” According to most people, I speak to, betting on a fast expansion of affordable online access is a comparatively safe bet to make in Kenya.

One of the best known Kenyan companies is business process outsourcing (BPO) pioneer KenCall (www.kencall.com). I meet with the company’s CEO Nicholas Nesbitt. His short term future expectations are dominated by the imminent employment of the SEACOM cable. This link will provide Kenya with access to the global optic fibre network, causing significant decreases in data connectivity costs while reliability will increase. Even more importantly, according to Nesbitt, the arrival of the cable will change the perception of KenCall’s services in the eyes of its international clients. From the present we move towards the future through a series of services and products, KenCall might well offer in the future: product tracking with RFID technology, phone based management advice for farmers, data information systems for international institutions and more. 15 Years from today he envisions farmers on their tractors with a screen next to their steering panel where they exchange information and real time advice with experts and farmers from Idaho to China.

When discussing the future of technology with young Kenyan professionals, I am frequently met with great enthusiasm. When I asked Jessica Colaço, a research leader at Strathmore University’s SRCC consultancy and a TEDglobal fellow, and  Mworia Wilfred Mutua, an excellent programmer now specializing in mobile web applications, about their perceptions of the future, their eyes lit up and after about 30 minutes all our brains just fused with imagination, ideas and energy. Luckily, not all of us lost their critical reflection about how all these things might not happen. But this and similar meetings have convinced me that passion for technology and professionalism related to it are on the rise in Nairobi.

Dutch connections in this sector do exist. For example, the Amsterdam based investment fund TBL Mirrorfund (www.TBLmirrorfund.com) aims to profit from upcoming small and medium-sized Kenyan businesses. During our meeting, managing partner Jacco Brink outlines the great potential he sees in the Kenyan market with its increasing number of successful technology pioneers. The fund’s current portfolio consists of KenCall, health care provider Meridian Medical Centre, IT company Software Solutions and the market research business Research Solutions.

My time in Kenya comes to an end. The ambitious technology pioneers, the reflective intellectual elite, the untapped potential awakening in the country leaves me with awe and wonder. If Kenya succeeds to politically stabilize in the long run, the prospects for the future could not be brighter. Unfortunately, a scenario of continued ethnic tensions and sporadically erupting violence is not unlikely. Whichever way the future develops, technology will have a major impact on the country. 
 

In Uganda

My first introduction to Uganda’s technological future comes in the form of a visit to the National Agricultural Research Organisation’s laboratories in Kawanda. The on-site research aims to shorten the growth cycles of important crops, such as banana, coffee and pineapples, to enhance their health and to reduce their need for water. If implemented on a large scale, these GMO’s could substantially increase the volume and consistency of yields. In addition to the scientific work done at the station, the resident scientists give me a run-down of the legal and political prerequisites for making the transition to a high yield agriculture. It seems like a daunting process, unlikely to be completed within the 15 year time horizon of my project.

Two days later, I meet with Erostus Nsubuga, CEO of AGT. This private enterprise specialises in tissue culture and multiplies disease free and high yield seeds for today’s agricultural needs. Erostus’s view of the future is hopeful for his business, especially when it comes to exporting his seeds to Kenya and Rwanda. For Uganda, he is faced with frustratingly fragmented and un-coordinated demand for his products, driving up production costs and retail prices.

Prof. Togboa of Makerere University provides me with an unintended, yet valuable insight into the future of transport in Uganda. My visit coincides with the visit of a Japanese delegation from Keio University. The Japanese delegation’s main expertise is the development of electric vehicles and the purpose of the  visit is to explore the possibilities for developing electric buses for Uganda. Makerere University has in the past developed hybrid vehicles in its own workshops and in collaboration with MIT. All three initiatives have not yet yielded practical results. As I see it, the internal combustion engines in cars like the Tata Nano and the ever present Toyota Hilux pick-up are bound to dominate the continent for quite some decades to come.

Dr. Dorothy Okello, a lecturer at Makerere University and board member of the UCC (Uganda Communications Commission) is optimistic by nature. However, recent experiences at UCC made her loose much of that optimism when it comes to utilizing the potential offered by the ICT push to the region. The Ugandan parliament currently blocks funds needed for the development of the National Backbone Initiative, the country’s fibre-optic network. It does so since it became evident that Rwanda was able to complete a network of similar size for a quarter of the price projected for the Ugandan network. Exactly how that price difference can be explained and who earns a 75% mark-up in the process, is not yet clear. In the meantime, all Dororthy can do, is to give good lectures, challenge her students and expose them to modern ICT. More often than not, this will involve a study period abroad.

The closest I get to the future of Uganda on this trip is during a visit to the National Planning Authority (NPA). The staff currently works on a thorough review of the country’s Vision 2025. The ambition is to develop a 30 year framework for the transition towards a middle income country, three ten year overall plans, six concrete 5 year plans with 2.5 year review intervals and annual budget planning. The plan addresses developments in agriculture, industry, minerals, oil & gas, forestry & fisheries, housing, tourism and ICT business, as well as the enabling environment required to make these sectors grow. The first draft is still under embargo and expected to be discussed by the cabinet later this  year. If that plan comes close to the visions of the neighbouring countries, it really could become a vehicle for much needed change.

I leave Uganda still wondering, how the country may come out of its current apathy. Private initiatives are impossible without government interference and the incredible potential of the country is wasted for now. It has been much harder to find technology pioneers and visionaries in Uganda and harder still to find traces of positive futures.
 

In Rwanda

The final destination of my trip is Kigali. I have been here 5 years ago, but recognise little beyond the general layout of the city on the hills. The once sleepy town has grown to become a vibrant (and rather expensive) city - though many, who have been here for two years or less would disagree. I am here to follow some traces of Rwanda’s Vision 2020, possibly the most ambitious long term plan of any African country. Already, the tiny country boasts more than 2500 km’s of optic fibre connections and government scholarships for bright young minds to attend engineering and ICT schools in India and elsewhere. Incidentally, Rwanda also holds a world record with it 56% female share among parliamentarians. Rwanda might well become the first African country to economically grow through a massive inflow of international development aid well spent on infrastructure, administrative capacity building and strategic positioning. Watch this country with its high ambitions and commitment.  

A member of staff at the One-Laptop-Per-Child (OLPC) learning centre at the Kigali Institute for Science and Technology (KIST) gives me my first taste of Rwandan eagerness to bridge the digital divide: shortly, all parts of the country will be connected by fibre-optic networks. Within 4 years, 50% of all students will be practically experienced in the use of computers and software, all teachers in the country will be trained to this end. This digital master plan is just one aspect of how Rwanda aims to outgrow the shadows of its past. The underlying mentality is explained to me as follows: we desperately need to grow in order to alleviate poverty and we know what growth looks like. It is therefore just a question of a step-wise plan for action coupled with its tight monitoring. On average Vision 2020 is 90% on schedule. My interview partner is convinced, that Rwanda is bound to catch up with Europe during the next three to four decades.

At the ministry of infrastructure I learn more about Rwanda's ambitions with respect to energy and infrastructure, but also about the country's management style. Rwanda is expanding its electricity generation capacity at a high pace from a low base. Currently, the country runs on 69 MW, a large chunk of it produced by rented diesel generators. These are scheduled to be replaced by new hydropower plants and a plant utilizing a unique methane reservoir at the bottom of lake Kivu. The methane holds a total potential of 400MW production capacity to be shared among Congo, Burundi and Rwanda. It will take many years to realize this, but the second pilot plant of 25MW will soon come online. On the transport front, Rwanda aims to extend the Tanzanian rail network to Kigali by 2013 and continue to expand its excellent road network. For Kigali, the minister follows an impressive masterplan, the blueprints of which make it look like Singapore, the country's role model.

Rwanda's vision 2020 is an attempt to outrun any problems the country might have. The pressure to realize development is felt by everyone in the country and many are not able to keep up with the high speed of change. Yet, the fast pace and high pressure top-down strategy chosen might have been the only way to move out of the shadows of the past. From a technological, development and business perspective, Rwanda is absolutely unique. The eagerness, focus and force with which the country pursues tangible development is everpresent. Whether this is enough to make Rwanda an African Singapore, the future will tell.

My travels end in Kigali, I return to the Netherlands to work through the results. Another trip is in the planning, probably to Senegal, Burkina Faso, Ghana and Nigeria. I am open to all suggestions.